Citi Warns Trump Presidency Could Drive Oil Prices Lower
(Reuters) — A Donald Trump presidency could be net bearish for oil prices due to a combination of factors including tariffs and oil-friendly policies and pushing the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) to release more oil into the market, Citi said in a research note on Thursday.
"Trump could roll back environmental policies, though broadly overturning the (Inflation Reduction Act) looks unlikely due to its positive impacts in red states," analysts noted, referring to states that are Republican leaning.
The main bullish risk for oil markets under a Trump presidency would be would be pressure on Iran, they added, though this could have a limited impact. If Trump were to readopt a "maximum pressure" campaign on Iran, the market could see a 500-900 thousand barrel per day impact on Iranian oil exports.
U.S. President Joe Biden abandoned his reelection bid on Sunday and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as the party's candidate for the November election, following growing pressure from his fellow Democrats.
"A Harris administration may be similar to, or slightly left of Biden," Citi analysts said.
Meanwhile, the market continues to face geopolitical, cyber and weather-related risks.
"Hurricane season is far from over — Mideast tensions remain high, with fighting in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen. However, pressure has also been mounting for a push for a ceasefire, which could conceivably be forthcoming this summer," Citi added.
Related News
Related News
- Trump Puts Keystone XL Pipeline Back in Discussion, Though Revival Faces Developer Resistance
- Army Corps Lists Enbridge’s Line 5 as ‘Emergency’ Project Eligible to Bypass Environmental Review
- Missouri Loses Control Over 1.5 Million-Mile Gas Pipeline Network as Feds Step In
- Energy Transfer Wins New York Court Ruling in $150 Million Pipeline Fraud Case
- $3 Billion Natural Gas Pipeline Expansion to Add 1.3 Bcf Capacity in Southeast Region
- Kinder Morgan Approves $1.4 Billion Mississippi Crossing Project to Boost Southeast Gas Supply
- Army Corps Lists Enbridge’s Line 5 as ‘Emergency’ Project Eligible to Bypass Environmental Review
- India’s GAIL Eyes U.S. LNG Deals Following Trump’s Policy Shift
- TC Energy Beats Q4 Profit Estimates, Driven by Mexico Pipelines' Success
- Michigan Court Backs Permits for Enbridge’s Line 5 Pipeline Tunnel Project
Comments