Oil Demand Set to Decline to 80-100 Million bbl/d by 2035, Says BP Economist
(Reuters) — Global oil demand will fall to around 80 million barrels per day by 2035 in a net-zero environment, and 100 million bpd in the current trajectory scenario, BP's chief U.S. economist told an energy conference in Dallas on Wednesday.
Crude oil demand is about 102 million bpd now, and the forecast assumes renewables and more efficient motor vehicles increase over that period. But BP's Michael Cohen said the world will need continued investment in fossil fuels to ensure an orderly transition to cleaner energy.
Non-OPEC oil supply growth will exceed demand growth over the next several years, limiting the ability of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to add more barrels to the global market, Cohen said.
Market changes also will produce a shift in output and configurations at oil refineries. Refiners will shift their plants to produce more naphtha to replace gasoline, and there will be greater integration of oil and petrochemical operations, Cohen said.
The portion of gasoline compared with other refined products supplied by refiners will drop to about 15% by 2050, from 25% today, he said. Automakers will continue to build internal combustible engine vehicles, and there will be more miles driven worldwide, Cohen said, but light vehicles will be more fuel-efficient.
The drop in gasoline demand will particularly affect European refineries, Cohen said.
“The Atlantic Basin component of refining throughput declines is the largest of any of the different regions,” said Cohen.
While investment in oil and gas production will remain stable, there will be a massive increase in spending on renewable energy, he said.
Related News
Related News
- Trump Aims to Revive 1,200-Mile Keystone XL Pipeline Despite Major Challenges
- Valero Considers All Options, Including Sale, for California Refineries Amid Regulatory Pressure
- ConocoPhillips Eyes Sale of $1 Billion Permian Assets Amid Marathon Acquisition
- ONEOK Agrees to Sell Interstate Gas Pipelines to DT Midstream for $1.2 Billion
- Energy Transfer Reaches FID on $2.7 Billion, 2.2 Bcf/d Permian Pipeline
- U.S. LNG Export Growth Faces Uncertainty as Trump’s Tariff Proposal Looms, Analysts Say
- Tullow Oil on Track to Deliver $600 Million Free Cash Flow Over Next 2 Years
- Energy Transfer Reaches FID on $2.7 Billion, 2.2 Bcf/d Permian Pipeline
- GOP Lawmakers Slam New York for Blocking $500 Million Pipeline Project
- Texas Oil Company Challenges $250 Million Insurance Collateral Demand for Pipeline, Offshore Operations
Comments