U.S. Natural Gas Prices Hit 5-Month High on Late-November Cold Snap Forecast
(Reuters) — U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% on Tuesday to a five-month high, on forecasts for colder weather in late November that should boost heating demand and force utilities to start pulling gas from storage by the U.S. Thanksgiving Day holiday.
Front-month gas futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 2.5 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $2.998 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), their highest close since June 12. Capping gains were milder weather forecasts for the next two weeks that could limit heating demand.
Analysts have said mild autumn weather should allow utilities to keep injecting more gas into storage than usual for the week ended Nov. 15 and possibly Nov. 22.
If correct, the week ended Nov. 15 would be the first time since October 2022 that inventories rose more than usual for five straight weeks.
There was currently about 7% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year.
Supply and Demand
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states eased to 100.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) so far in November from 101.3 Bcf/d in October. That compares with a record 105.3 Bcf/d in December 2023. Annual output remained on track to decline in 2024 for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic cut demand in 2020.
Many producers reduced drilling activities this year after average spot monthly prices at the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana fell to a 32-year low for the month of March, and have remained soft since then.
Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states will remain mostly warmer than normal through Nov. 27 before turning colder than normal from Nov. 28-Dec. 4.
With colder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 107.7 Bcf/d this week to 115.4 Bcf/d next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Monday.
The amount of gas flowing to the seven big operating U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 13.4 Bcf/d so far in November, up from 13.1 Bcf/d in October. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 Bcf/d in December 2023.
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