Wood Mackenzie Warns of Gas Turbine Supply Constraints Through 2040
(Reuters) — The gas turbine market might have trouble satisfying strong demand in the next 15 years due to manufacturing constraints, rising costs and competition from renewables, energy research firm Wood Mackenzie said in a report on May 14.
Wood Mackenzie expects new gas-fired generation projects of around 890 gigawatt (GW) capacity to be added globally between 2025 and 2040, with the U.S. and China leading at 47% annual additions during the same period.
The report noted that high U.S. capital costs and low power market prices pose hurdles, while in Asia high imported gas costs can limit growth. In Europe, decarbonization goals are pushing unabated gas to the margins by 2040.
Meanwhile, power demand is likely to rise to 4,205 billion kilowatt hours (kWh) in 2025 and 4,252 billion kWh in 2026, from a record 4,097 billion kWh in 2024, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said earlier this month.
Mackenzie said the emergence of net-zero power technologies like carbon capture and storage and hydrogen blending, along with the development of midstream infrastructure, presents opportunities and challenges for gas power growth.
"These limits point to continued tight conditions in turbine deliveries through 2030, with conditions loosening between 2030 and 2040," said David Brown, director of energy transition research at Wood Mackenzie.
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