March 2022, Vol. 249, No. 3
EIA Reports
Fossil Fuel Production to Reach New Highs in 2023
After declining in 2020, the combined production of U.S. fossil fuels (including natural gas, crude oil, and coal) increased by 2% in 2021 to 77.14 quadrillion Btu.
Based on forecasts in the STEO, U.S. fossil fuel production is expected to continue rising in 2022 and 2023, surpassing production in 2019, to reach a new record in 2023.
Of the total U.S. fossil fuel production in 2021, dry natural gas accounted for 46%, the largest share. Crude oil accounted for 30%, coal for 15%, and natural gas plant liquids (NGPLs) for 9%.
U.S. dry natural gas production increased by 2% in 2021, based on monthly data through October and estimates for November and December. The forecast said improvements in drilling efficiency and new well production will contribute to production increases of 3% in 2022 and 2% in 2023.
U.S. crude oil production dropped slightly, by an estimated 1%, in 2021, but look for it to increase by 6% in 2022 and 5% in 2023. In 2022 and 2023, crude oil prices likely will remain high enough to encourage growth in the number of active drilling rigs and continued improvement in drilling efficiency.
U.S. coal production increased by an estimated 7% in 2021, driven by increased demand for coal because of rising natural gas prices. Coal’s comparatively lower prices made coal more economical for use in electric power generation compared with natural gas.
EIA forecasts that coal production will increase 6% in 2022 as coal-fired electricity generators rebuild inventory levels. However, coal production will only increase by 1% in 2023 as demand for coal in the electric power sector declines.
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