May 2016, Vol. 243, No. 5
Features
Iran Targets India to Gain Crude Export Market Share
Iran’s waterborne crude oil exports reached 53.4mn bbls, or 1.7mn bpd in March 2016, up 140,000 bpd from February 2016, as the country sends more crude to India following the removal of economic sanctions in January 2016.
Iran’s export target markets have shifted in 2016 from East Asian to Indian refiners as the country works to regain market share. Before sanctions were imposed against Iran, the country was the second-largest crude supplier to India.
Iran’s export by departure month.
While India’s gross oil imports from the Middle East and West Africa did not significantly change in March 2016, it has imported more Iranian crude, displacing supplies from other countries. India’s oil imports from Iraq and Nigeria decreased since the beginning of 2016. At the same time, imports from Iran surged from 6.0mn bbls (190,000 bpd) in January 2016 to 17mn bbls (540,000 bpd) in March 2016.
India’s monthly oil import from Middle East and West Africa.
The increased crude exported to India from Iran in March 2016 appeared to mainly move to Vadinar terminal, where the 285,000 bpd Essar refinery is located, as well as some other East Coast destinations. As shown in the figure below, Iraq’s and Nigeria’s crude flows to Vadinar broadly declined since January 2016, while flows from Iran reached a post-sanctions record high of 9.0mn bbls in March 2016.
Oil flows to Vadinar by departure month.
India’s oil imports from Iran are expected to increase further after a deal between multiple Indian refiners and Iran’s National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC), where the refiners agreed to import to at least 400,000 bpd from April 2016 onward, according to Reuters.
See more at: http://www.genscape.com/blog/iran-targets-india-gain-crude-export-market-share#sthash.aqWWU3zw.dpuf
Author: Amir Bornaee, EMEA Crude Oil Analyst, Genscape
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