January 2021, Vol. 248, No. 1
Features
More Residential Consumption Expected this Winter than Last
By U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts residential natural gas consumption for the winter season will average 21.1 Bcf/d, 5% more than last winter, due to colder temperatures and changes in consumer behavior.
Based on forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), EIA expects the winter to average 602 heating degree days (HDDs), which is nearly equal to the average of the previous 10 winters and 5% more HDDs than last winter. Population-weighted HDDs measure temperature deviations from 65°F (18°C) and are used to estimate demand for heating fuels.
Changes in consumer behavior in reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic will also contribute to more residential consumption of natural gas this winter. EIA expects work-from-home and virtual schooling policies to affect winter residential consumption because, with more people at home during the day, residential space heating demand will increase compared with last winter.
Nearly half of all U.S. homes are heated primarily with natural gas. As forecast in EIA’s Winter Fuels Outlook, the average retail price of residential natural gas this winter for homes that primarily use natural gas for heating will average $9.55 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf), down 2% from $9.73/Mcf last winter. The lower average residential price of natural gas reflects generally lower natural gas spot prices in 2020.
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